Journal of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases
Journal of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases
JoMMID
Medical Sciences
http://jommid.pasteur.ac.ir
1
admin
2345-5349
2345-5330
8
10.61186/JoMMID
14
8888
13
en
jalali
1392
10
1
gregorian
2014
1
1
2
1
online
1
fulltext
en
Temporal Modeling of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever in Iran
Original article
Original article
<p><strong>Introduction </strong><strong>: </strong>This study was aimed to investigate the effects of risk factors, and environmental and climatic factors a ffecting the occurrence <strong></strong>of <strong></strong>Crimean-Congo <strong></strong>hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in <strong></strong>Iran. We used <strong></strong>temporal modeling <strong></strong>to <strong></strong>predict the future <strong></strong>occurrence <strong></strong>of the disease in the country . <strong>Methods </strong><strong>: </strong>We analyzed the data <strong></strong>of 165 <strong></strong>CCHF <strong></strong>patients from all over <strong></strong>Iran (e xcept the districts Zabol <strong></strong>and <strong></strong>Zahedan in Eastern Iran ) during 2000 to 2006. In this study, 130 districts with at least one <strong></strong>reported case patient, and 780 districts with no reported case patient, as the control group, were included in <strong></strong>the <strong></strong>model. Logistic regression was used to <strong></strong>design the temporal <strong></strong>model of <strong></strong>the <strong></strong>disease <strong></strong>at the <strong></strong>district-month level nationwide with the purpose <strong></strong>of predicting <strong></strong>the occurrence <strong></strong>of <strong></strong>CCHF <strong></strong>disease with in <strong></strong>one month in a district. <strong>Results: </strong>The designed model indicated that the history of previous reports of the disease in a <strong></strong>district <strong></strong>increased the risk of further reports of the disease (odds ratio: 2.53 (95% CI: 1.61, 3.97), (P <0.001)). Moreover, w ith each one-million increase in <strong></strong>the <strong></strong>urban population, the odds of a report of the disease increased 20% (P =0.003). The odds of the occurrence of the disease were reduced by 9% w ith the increase in e ach degree of latitude (P =0.028). The odds of the occurrence of the disease increased 6.25 times w ith the increase in e ach kilometer of altitude (P <0.001). T he disease had a decreasing s ecular trend so that the occurrence of the disease was reduced by 10 % each year (P =0.008). <strong>Conclusion </strong><strong>: </strong>Our findings showed that based on the history of CCHF in districts, and population and geographical features, hot zones may be defined with some acceptable accuracy. <i>J Med Microbiol Infec Dis, 2014, 1 (2): 7 pages. </i></p>
Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Crimean-Congo, Iran, Temporal Modeling
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http://jommid.pasteur.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-32-2&slc_lang=en&sid=1
Ehsan
Mostafavi
1003194753284600561
1003194753284600561
No
Department of Epidemiology, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran, Iran
Ali Akbar
Haghdoost
1003194753284600562
1003194753284600562
Yes
Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute of Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Amin
Doosti Irani
1003194753284600563
1003194753284600563
No
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Saeid
Bokaei
1003194753284600564
1003194753284600564
No
Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Sadegh
Chinikar
1003194753284600565
1003194753284600565
No
Arboviruses and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Laboratory, National Reference Laboratory, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran, Iran